Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: May 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Oil prices started April in the $70 to $75/bbl range but quickly turned down with the announcement of extensive tariffs by US President Trump on 2 April. Within a few days, Brent began trading between $62 and $68/bbl, a pattern that remained over the rest of the month. Prices reacted downward to news of weakening economic growth but were supported by greater US enforcement of sanctions against Venezuela and Iran which would potentially reduce supply. In our early May Monthly Update, we have updated the GDP outlook to reflect the “reciprocal tariffs remain paused” case.
Table of contents
- High stakes talks between US and Iran
-
Global supply: weakening demand outlook and OPEC+ easing of cuts puts pressure on US onshore supply
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to North American outlook dominates changes this month
- US Lower 48 supply to marginally decline year-on-year in 2026
-
Global demand: Escalating global trade barriers and market turmoil result in material downward revisions to the outlook
- Liquids demand by key markets
- Risks to the outlook
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
sy test report creation and run
Iron Ore Price Assumptions
$1,750
Insight
Thrive, not survive, in the cutthroat Asian refining and oils market
Takeaways from Wood Mackenzie APPEC Briefing 2025 in Singapore
$900
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - September 2025
Upgrades to global supply driven by US Lower 48 crude and NGLs, Brazil, United Arab Emirates and Argentina
$1,750
