This month’s Horizons explores how new energy realities are delaying the global retreat from coal, challenging long-held assumptions about its decline and complicating the path to net zero.
Geopolitical instability, surging electricity demand, and underdeveloped alternatives are keeping coal firmly in the power mix - despite global efforts to decarbonise. While Wood Mackenzie’s base-case forecast still sees global coal demand peaking in 2026, a new high coal demand scenario suggests that peak could slip to 2030, with sustained coal use far beyond that.
Asia, home to 78% of today’s coal consumption, holds the future of coal in its hands. A young coal fleet, strategic energy security concerns, and affordability make coal an attractive option across many fast-growing economies - particularly India, Indonesia, Vietnam and China. Meanwhile, new coal technologies, including flexible plant operations and carbon capture, could make coal more compatible with renewables-dominated grids.
This month's Horizons report, Staying power: How new energy realities risk extending coal's sunset, presents the implications of a higher-for-longer coal outlook on power markets, emissions, and clean energy investment. We assess the macro forces and local market dynamics shaping the future of coal, and the critical role policy support will play in shifting the trajectory.